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Modular refinery operations
10 Specialist Practice Areas

Modular & Commercial
Refinery Advisory

Full-spectrum economics and strategic advisory for modular and commercial refinery projects — from feasibility studies and feedstock strategy through to dispute support and NOC policy design.

01Project Economics02Feedstock Strategy03Product Slate04Commercial Strategy05Regulatory, Fiscal06Crude Supply07Infrastructure08Market Intelligence09Dispute Support10Public Sector
Our Approach

The specialist economics partner for Nigeria's refining renaissance

From sub-scale modular units (10–30 KBPD) to full commercial refineries, ECP delivers the financial modelling, commercial structuring, and regulatory economics that investors, developers, and governments need to make sound refining decisions in Nigeria's evolving downstream landscape.

10
Practice areas
30KBPD
Max scale modelled
PIA
Fiscal expertise
NOC
Government advisory
Service Areas

Modular & Commercial Refinery — Full Capability

Project Economics & Investment Advisory
01
📊

Project Economics & Investment Advisory

Comprehensive financial modelling and investment analysis for greenfield and brownfield modular refinery projects — from feasibility through lender due diligence.

Feasibility studies (greenfield and brownfield)
CAPEX/OPEX benchmarking for modular refinery units
IRR, NPV, payback, sensitivity and scenario modelling
Feedstock price risk analysis (crude, condensate, heavy fuel)
Phased development economics (10 KBPD – 30 KBPD)
Investor Pitch Decks and Financial Information Memorandum (FIMs)
Lender Due Diligence Support
Feedstock Strategy & Crude Supply Advisory
02
🛢

Feedstock Strategy & Crude Supply Advisory

End-to-end crude sourcing strategy, supply contract economics, and feedstock optimisation to maximise refinery margins and supply security.

Crude sourcing strategy (domestic allocation vs market purchase)
Term vs spot crude economics
Crude assay analysis and yield optimisation
Condensate vs crude take-off economics
Feedstock logistics modelling (pipelines, trucking, barging)
Crude pricing formulas and supply contract advisory
Economic impact of crude theft, losses and disruptions
Product Slate & Market Optimisation
03
⚗️

Product Slate & Market Optimisation

Data-driven product slate modelling and market analysis to optimise output mix, pricing strategy, and demand alignment across domestic and export markets.

Optimal product slate modelling (PMS, AGO, DPK, ATK, HFO, LPG)
Domestic vs export product market analysis
Price forecasting and margin modelling
Product demand-supply gap analysis (national and regional)
Import parity pricing vs refinery gate pricing
Product blending economics
Seasonal demand optimisation
Commercial Strategy & Offtake Structuring
04
🤝

Commercial Strategy & Offtake Structuring

Structuring offtake agreements, pricing frameworks, and commercial risk allocation to underpin bankable refinery project finance.

Offtake agreement structuring (domestic marketers, bulk buyers)
Product pricing formulas and escalation clauses
Minimum volume commitment analysis
Take-or-Pay vs best-effort contracts
Refinery gate pricing frameworks
Integration with downstream distribution networks
Commercial risk allocation methods
Regulatory, Fiscal & Policy Advisory
05
⚖️

Regulatory, Fiscal & Policy Advisory

Navigating Nigeria's complex regulatory and fiscal landscape — from PIA implementation to incentive frameworks and environmental compliance cost modelling.

Licensing economics
Petroleum Industry Act fiscal impact modelling
Taxation advisory (CIT, VAT, Excise, Custom Duties)
Incentive analysis (Pioneer Status, Free Trade Zone)
Domestic Crude Supply Obligation economics
Price deregulation impact assessments
Environmental compliance cost modelling
Crude Supply & Refinery Feedstock Strategy
06
🔄

Crude Supply & Refinery Feedstock Strategy

Dedicated crude supply strategy covering domestic obligations, pricing formulas, FX structures, and supply disruption risk for refinery feedstock security.

Domestic crude supply obligation economics
Crude pricing formula advisory
Contract structuring (term vs spot)
Crude quality compatibility analysis
Supply disruption risk modelling
FX exposure and crude payment structures
Infrastructure & Logistics Economics
07
🏗️

Infrastructure & Logistics Economics

Economic modelling of the full logistics chain — from pipeline tariffs and marine terminals to depot storage and refinery evacuation bottleneck studies.

Pipeline tariff modelling
Depot storage pricing
Marine terminal economics
Jetty & trucking cost optimisation
Refinery evacuation bottleneck studies
Integrated logistics master planning
Market Intelligence & Strategic Studies
08
🔍

Market Intelligence & Strategic Studies

In-depth strategic research on African refining capacity, import dependency, competitive landscape, and national refining roadmaps.

Regional refining capacity outlook
Product demand-supply gap analysis
Import dependency studies
Competitive benchmarking
Refining hub development studies
National refining roadmap advisory
Dispute Support & Forensic Economics
09
🧾

Dispute Support & Forensic Economics

Independent economic analysis for refinery-related disputes — from margin calculations and transfer pricing to loss of profit quantification and arbitration support.

Refinery margin disputes
Transfer pricing disputes
Contract performance analysis
Loss of profit quantification
Regulatory penalty economic assessments
Public Sector & NOC Advisory
10
🏛️

Public Sector & NOC Advisory

Strategic advisory to governments, national oil companies, and regulators on refinery policy, portfolio optimisation, and privatisation economics.

National refinery strategy design
NOC refinery portfolio optimisation
Privatisation and concession economics
Public-private partnership structuring
Refinery rehabilitation economic reviews
Policy alignment with PIA-type frameworks